947
FXUS62 KKEY 070223
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THIS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL ELEVATED HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS ONLY SUBTLY
HAVING AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE KEYS AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS
ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS VERY DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS WITH PWAT VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 0.7 TO 0.91 INCHES. KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING IS DRY TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TONIGHT. THE
SOUNDING IS VIRTUALLY DRY FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
COLUMN OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 0.91 INCHES
WHICH PLACES THIS RIGHT BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
THE WIND PROFILE IS ALSO QUITE CHAOTIC THROUGH THE LOWEST 3000 FT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT INDICATIVE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THEREFORE, EXPECT THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND CLOUD FREE ALSO. NO
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RESULT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY, BREEZES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
TOWARDS THE PRE DAWN THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY AIR REMAINS IN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 79 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 85 79 86 80 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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