907
FXUS62 KKEY 070901
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
501 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND LOWS NEAR 80F, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A VERY DRY AND STABLE
PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR HAS ONLY BEEN
DETECTING NORTHWARD BIRD MIGRATION ALL NIGHT, WITH DERIVED
PRODUCTS INDICATING ALL REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES NON-METEOROLOGICAL
IN NATURE. LAND- BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP OVERNIGHT, LANDING IN THE UPPER 70S AT
MOST COMMUNITIES. SYNOPTIC SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FLORIDA
KEYS UNDER THE CONTINUED LOOSE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, WITH A LATE SPRING
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC. THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES HAS SUPPORTED
A RATHER PRONOUNCED NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
FURTHER ALOFT, THE EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY ALSO SAMPLED RISING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 925 MB ISOBARIC SURFACE, INDICATIVE
OF CONTINUED AMPLIFYING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. ALL
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS OF THE MID 70S THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. LIMITED DIURNAL CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S, AND LOWS STRUGGLING TO REACH
BELOW 80F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
100F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR IN MANY COMMUNITIES.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS DO SUGGEST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
TRY TO DRIVE A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE KEYS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, OWED TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED RIDGE, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE KEYS BEFORE LIKELY DECAYING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER, ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES DECLINE IN DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURE, IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN THIS SCENARIO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
A WIND SURGE OVERNIGHT HAS SUPPORTED SLIGHTLY OVERPRODUCING
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES. THESE BREEZES SHOULD SLACKEN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE. FROM SYNOPSIS, A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY,
BREEZES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY MORNING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 88 80 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 86 79 86 81 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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