993
FXUS62 KKEY 071535
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1135 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND LOWS NEAR 80F, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL "HIGH AND DRY" DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS! GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT OUR KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING
ANY METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ~6,100 FT, AS WELL AS A VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE
COLUMN. HOWEVER, A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IS SITTING ALOFT, AND
WILL HELP TO INHIBIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES SHOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR THE
MID 70S. THIS GIVES US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
AND THIS NUMBER WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP AS THE DAY GOES ON. WE
ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF OUR FIRST PUSH OF SUMMERTIME HEAT ACROSS
THE KEYS.
THE BENIGN, ALBEIT TOASTY, FORECAST PACKAGE IS UNFOLDING AS
EXPECTED, SO NO CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. ALL
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE SUMMER- LIKE LEVELS OF THE MID 70S THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. LIMITED DIURNAL CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S, AND LOWS STRUGGLING TO REACH
BELOW 80F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
100F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR IN MANY COMMUNITIES.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS DO SUGGEST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
TRY TO DRIVE A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE KEYS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, OWED TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED RIDGE, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE KEYS BEFORE LIKELY DECAYING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER, ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES DECLINE IN DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURE, IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN THIS SCENARIO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY, BREEZES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS, BUT NEARBY
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO INFREQUENT AND
UNREPRESENTATIVE MVFR CIGS. ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR
5 KNOTS. SHOWER CHANCES ARE VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 88 80 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 86 79 86 81 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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