079
FXUS62 KKEY 071743
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
143 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND LOWS NEAR 80F, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW
TO OCCASIONALLY SCT SKIES NEAR FL015 AND 020. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS
BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. ALL
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE SUMMER- LIKE LEVELS OF THE MID 70S THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. LIMITED DIURNAL CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S, AND LOWS STRUGGLING TO REACH
BELOW 80F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
100F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR IN MANY COMMUNITIES.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS DO SUGGEST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
TRY TO DRIVE A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE KEYS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, OWED TO THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED RIDGE, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE KEYS BEFORE LIKELY DECAYING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER, ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES DECLINE IN DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURE, IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN THIS SCENARIO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY, BREEZES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 88 80 90 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 79 86 81 87 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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