606
FXUS62 KKEY 080228
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND LOWS NEAR 80F, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE CENTERED VIRTUALLY
RIGHT OVER THE KEYS AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)
PRODUCTS SHOW ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES OF 1 INCH ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS.
KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. GOES
19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS ALSO SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
KEYS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
DISTANT STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. IT IS
INCREDIBLY WARM AND HUMID FOR EARLY MAY. IT IS DEFINITELY FEELING
LIKE SUMMER AND HAS THAT TROPICAL FEEL.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING DISPLAYS ONCE AGAIN A VERY DRY PROFILE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HOWEVER, THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMPARED TO LAST
EVENING. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.32 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT
NEAR THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS CHAOTIC IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS NOT INDICATIVE OR FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER
FORMATION. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY, BREEZES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH, THERE MAY BE
OCCASIONAL TIME FRAMES WHERE WINDS BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE KEYS WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 88 80 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 86 79 86 81 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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