468
FXUS62 KKEY 080813
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
413 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S, AND LOWS NEAR 80F, WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
GOES-19 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BRIDGING OVER THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE
BAHAMAS. THIS STUBBORN BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEFLECT DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE
STATE OF TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF COASTLINE, THEN
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE 00Z
EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A GENERALLY UNINHIBITED SURFACE
PARCEL PROFILE, ALTHOUGH MORE IMPORTANTLY, A SCANT BOUNDARY
MEAN MOISTURE SIGNATURE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE
STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 80F, NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL OBSERVING
SITES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE WILL DICTATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, SUPPORTING NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE, CURRENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBER AND MEAN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE A SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD, DROUGHT-BUSTING ACCUMULATIONS
ARE QUITE UNLIKELY FOR MOST COMMUNITIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY, BREEZES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY MORNING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PREVAILING
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE KEYS, SUPPORTING NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 86 81 87 82 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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