104
FXUS62 KKEY 081532
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1132 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90F MARK, AND LOWS NEAR 80F, WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
IT IS SLOWLY STARTING TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AS OUR AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE CURRENTLY
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE SITTING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR
90F TO THE MID 90S, AND WE EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO CONTINUE TO
CLIMB AS DEW POINTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH GOES-19 VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND OUR NEIGHBORING KAMX RADAR DEPICT A VERY NARROW BAND
OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN,
SPECIFICALLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS LINE IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND CONVERGENCE, BUT THE AIR PARCEL MAY HAVE ENCOUNTERED JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO PREVENT ANY RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING. THE FEW
WEBCAMS AVAILABLE TO LOOK SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE SHOWN THE
LINE OF CLOUDS, BUT NO VISIBLE RAIN. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM
THIS MORNING OFFERS SOME INSIGHT AS TO WHY WE MAY NOT HAVE ANY
RAIN, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. AROUND
915MB, THE RADIOSONDE SAMPLED A NOTABLE DRY LAYER, AS WELL AS THE
FIRST OF A FEW INVERSIONS IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE. MOISTURE HAS
CLEARLY BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS, BUT NOT ENOUGH FRO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. A BRIEF UPTICK IN BREEZES IS ALSO OCCURRING
ALONG THIS LINE, AND MARINE PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING NEAR 10 KNOTS,
OR NEAR 12 MPH. THIS LINE WILL EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT, AS THERE
ISN'T MUCH ELSE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE FOR IT TO WORK WITH, AND
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN ONCE AGAIN.
THERE ARE NO PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DICTATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, SUPPORTING NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE, CURRENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBER AND MEAN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE A SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD, DROUGHT-BUSTING ACCUMULATIONS
ARE QUITE UNLIKELY FOR MOST COMMUNITIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SLIGHT UPTICK
IN RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH ONLY FEW
TO OCCASIONALLY SCT SKIES NEAR FL030. SURFACE WINDS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY FRESHEN TO NEAR 10 KNOTS, BUT THIS
WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE NEAR 5 KNOTS, AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 86 81 87 82 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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