968
FXUS62 KKEY 081806
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
206 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONCERNS FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL OFFER LITTLE TO
NO RELIEF WITH LOWS NEAR 80F.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
KEYS.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
EXISTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS NEAR FL020 WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY
VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS. DUE TO
THE LIGHT NATURE OF THESE WINDS, DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DICTATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, SUPPORTING NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE, CURRENT ENSEMBLE
MEMBER AND MEAN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN EARLY
IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE A SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD, DROUGHT-BUSTING ACCUMULATIONS
ARE QUITE UNLIKELY FOR MOST COMMUNITIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SLIGHT UPTICK
IN RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 90 81 90 / 0 10 10 10
MARATHON 81 87 82 87 / 0 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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