538
FXUS62 KKEY 090226
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONCERNS FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL OFFER LITTLE TO
NO RELIEF WITH LOWS NEAR 80F.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
KEYS.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
EXISTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS, MUCH OF CUBA, AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS IS RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND
FLORIDA. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED
PWAT VALUES OF MOSTLY 1.1 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS WERE
SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
DRY TORTUGAS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
RESULT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAIN
QUITE WARM FOR EARLY MAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS AN ASTONISHINGLY7 HOT 92 DEGREES
WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 91 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1873
OVER 150 YEARS AGO!
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING REMAINS DRY ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN 250-200 MB WHICH CAN BE
LINKED TO SOME OF THE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE KEYS. THE PROFILE IS UNSTABLE WITH A CAPE VALUE
MEASURED OF 1739 J/KG. ALSO, THE WIND PROFILE DISPLAYS SUBTLE
VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS.
THE PWAT VALUES CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE
PWAT MEASURED TONIGHT WAS 1.42 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND THE MEDIAN
FOR THE DATE. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE INSTABILITY, WE STILL HAVE
DRY AIR AND LACK OF A TRIGGER, THEREFORE, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE
STRAITS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATING FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
STRONG UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE
BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL MOSTLY
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 86 81 87 82 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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