289
FXUS62 KKEY 090809
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
409 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
- LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
- SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES FORECAST TO BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 0410 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KEYS THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
CUBA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL ACT
IN TANDEM TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ELEVATED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. YESTERDAY, BOTH THE WARM LOW OF 82 DEGREES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES BROKE THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORDS AT
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THIS
PATTERN WILL BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, IT WILL LIKELY GET
WARMER. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRIMED TO MAINTAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THAT BECOMES A
PROBLEM WHEN LOOKING AT THE DEW POINT. EARLY MORNING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE KEYS WERE MEASURED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHER DEW
POINTS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO DECREASE
BELOW 80 DEGREES. THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALSO INDICATES LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RELIEF DURING THE DAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT.
STAY HYDRATED, STAY NEAR SHADE, AND TAKE BREAKS DURING THE HOTTEST
HOURS OF THE DAY!
LOOKING AHEAD, UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE KEYS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT, WINDS ARE
ON TRACK TO SLACKEN AND PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE OFF AND
ON, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER DURING THE DAY.
A BIT OF RELIEF MAY COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE KEYS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS BOUNDARY IS
UNLIKELY TO CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO IMPACT THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. HEAT DOLDRUMS ARE IN FULL EFFECT FOR EARLY MAY, IT
SEEMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 0410 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL START
OUT THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH
PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. DEEP LAYERS OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 0410 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE CONDITIONS. THERE IS A NEAR
NIL CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BUT PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER STRATUS CLOUDS
ABOVE VFR HEIGHTS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 86 81 87 82 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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