211
FXUS62 KKEY 091541
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1141 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEKEND.
- LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
- SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES FORECAST TO BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LITTLE BIT OF QUICK MATH GIVES
US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND THESE NUMBERS
WILL LIKELY COME UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING IN
A FEW HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA IS NOTED ON GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY,
BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE CAN ALSO SEE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATELLITE LOOPS. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
SHADE MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE, BUT PLEASE NOTE
THAT THIS IS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO OFFSET THE HIGH
DEW POINT VALUES. THERE IS STILL VIRTUALLY ZERO CHANCE FOR ANY
RAIN TO OFFER RELIEF EITHER AS THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWED A STARK DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BREAKING UP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY LIFTED PARCEL RUNNING INTO THIS LAYER OF
DRY AIR WON'T LIKELY STAND MUCH OF A CHANCE.
THE WARM AND MUGGY FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. BE SURE TO STAY
HYDRATED, STAY NEAR SHADE, AND TAKE BREAKS DURING THE HOTTEST
HOURS OF THE DAY AS THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES WILL START OUT THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP LAYERS OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ALMOST NEAR ZERO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 0410 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CUBA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
OUTER BANKS WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. YESTERDAY, BOTH THE WARM LOW
OF 82 DEGREES AND HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES BROKE THEIR
RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORDS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT, IT WILL LIKELY GET WARMER. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS PRIMED TO MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THAT BECOMES A PROBLEM WHEN LOOKING AT THE DEW POINT.
LOOKING AHEAD, UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE KEYS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT, WINDS ARE
ON TRACK TO SLACKEN AND PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE OFF AND
ON, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER DURING THE DAY.
A BIT OF RELIEF MAY COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE KEYS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS BOUNDARY IS
UNLIKELY TO CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO IMPACT THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. HEAT DOLDRUMS ARE IN FULL EFFECT FOR EARLY MAY, IT
SEEMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 10
MARATHON 87 81 88 82 / 0 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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