794
FXUS62 KKEY 091802
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
202 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
- SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES FORECAST TO BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED AT EYW IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT LONGSTANDING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD
BASES ARE NEAR FL020 TO 030, SO MOST OBSERVATIONS WILL BE OF FEW
TO SCT SKIES. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL, AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES WILL START OUT THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES WITH PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP LAYERS OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 0410 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE
KEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CUBA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
OUTER BANKS WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. YESTERDAY, BOTH THE WARM LOW
OF 82 DEGREES AND HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES BROKE THEIR
RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORDS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT, IT WILL LIKELY GET WARMER. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS PRIMED TO MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THAT BECOMES A PROBLEM WHEN LOOKING AT THE DEW POINT.
LOOKING AHEAD, UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE KEYS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT, WINDS ARE
ON TRACK TO SLACKEN AND PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE OFF AND
ON, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER DURING THE DAY.
A BIT OF RELIEF MAY COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE KEYS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS BOUNDARY IS
UNLIKELY TO CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO IMPACT THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. HEAT DOLDRUMS ARE IN FULL EFFECT FOR EARLY MAY, IT
SEEMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 0
MARATHON 81 88 82 87 / 10 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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