869
FXUS62 KKEY 100158
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
958 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND.
- LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
- SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES FORECAST TO BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 917 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A TILTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REACHES WEST
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
REEF RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND AT TIMES AS HIGH AS 17 KNOTS
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE 00Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED A STOUT INVERSION
NEAR 700 MB AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AND WELL-MIXED BL. IN FACT, THE
CALCULATED DCAPE WAS NEAR THE RECORD FOR THE DATE. THIS EXPLAINS
THE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS AT THE REEF AS STRONGER WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ALSO, THE 700 MB INVERSION LIKELY EXPLAINS
THE NEARLY CLEAR RECEPTION OF USCG SECTOR ST. PETE ON OUR VHF
RADIO, WITH NEARLY PERFECT DUCTING OF RADIO WAVES.
THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT, ASIDE FROM
POTENTIALLY WEAK NOCTURNAL CONFLUENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE DEPICTIONS FROM CIRA'S ALPW
PRODUCTS, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (<20%) ACROSS OUR WESTERN
STRAITS OVERNIGHT. THE INHERITED FORECAST CALLS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED, NOR PLANNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 917 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP
LAYERS OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 917 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR AND GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 0
MARATHON 81 88 82 87 / 10 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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