229
FXUS62 KKEY 100937 CCA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
537 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO MAJOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE MID TO LOW
70S BY MID WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LINGERS
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID WEEK MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHORT-LIVED
SHOWERS AND A BREAK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEW POINTS ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE MEASURING IN THE MID
70S WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DROP TO NEAR 80. BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OBSERVED RECORD WARM LOWS YESTERDAY, AND
THAT TREND IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK TODAY. A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO INDUCE SINKING
AIR ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
WILL TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS TO BREAK, WHICH MEANS MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS SUNDAY.
RELIEF FROM THESE MUGGY CONDITIONS MAY START TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA WOULD BE ABLE
TO BRING THE SOUTHEASTERLIES TO AN END AND PROVIDE A SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE ABLE TO FORM. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR
KEY WEST DOES NOT SUGGEST THE CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD INCREASE ABOVE
30 PERCENT, BUT THE UPPER KEYS MAY GET A BIT MORE RELIEF.
CURRENT MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STALL
SOUTH OF THE KEYS AFTER MID WEEK. IN THIS REGIME, THE FLORIDA KEYS
WOULD OBSERVE PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
THE MERCIFUL ELEMENT TO THIS REGIME IS THAT NORTHERLIES WOULD KEEP
DEW POINTS JUST A LITTLE BIT LOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS NEARSHORE WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. DEEP LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO
SOMEWHAT INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WANES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE ON TRACK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS. PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FL020 ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS, BUT NOT AT COVERAGE TO WARRANT MVFR CRITERIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 88 81 87 81 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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