953
FXUS62 KKEY 101756
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
156 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO MAJOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE MID TO LOW 70S BY MID
WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LINGERS
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID WEEK MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHORT-LIVED
SHOWERS AND A BREAK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS, IT
IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEW POINTS ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE MEASURING IN THE MID 70S
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DROP TO NEAR 80. BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OBSERVED RECORD WARM LOWS YESTERDAY, AND
THAT TREND IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK TODAY. A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO INDUCE SINKING
AIR ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
WILL TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS TO BREAK, WHICH MEANS MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS SUNDAY.
RELIEF FROM THESE MUGGY CONDITIONS MAY START TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA WOULD BE ABLE
TO BRING THE SOUTHEASTERLIES TO AN END AND PROVIDE A SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE ABLE TO FORM. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR
KEY WEST DOES NOT SUGGEST THE CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD INCREASE ABOVE
30 PERCENT, BUT THE UPPER KEYS MAY GET A BIT MORE RELIEF.
CURRENT MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STALL
SOUTH OF THE KEYS AFTER MID WEEK. IN THIS REGIME, THE FLORIDA KEYS
WOULD OBSERVE PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZES AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
THE MERCIFUL ELEMENT TO THIS REGIME IS THAT NORTHERLIES WOULD KEEP
DEW POINTS JUST A LITTLE BIT LOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO SOMEWHAT INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE WEEK AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WANES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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