729
FXUS62 KKEY 110245
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO MAJOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 70S
BY MID WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LINGERS
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID WEEK MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHORT-LIVED
SHOWERS AND A BREAK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED BENIGN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AS OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF SUMMERTIME IS HERE! AS OF
5 PM THIS EVENING, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT TIED THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90 DEGREES. THIS
RECORD WAS MOST RECENTLY SET IN 2024. DEW POINTS DURING PEAK
HEATING WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100F TO 105F, GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN COUPLED WITH CONTINUOUS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES USHERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WOULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE BOUNDS OF OUR CWA TODAY, BUT OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
VOID OF METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS
EVENING SHOWED AN INVERSION AT AROUND 970MB, AND AN OSTENTATIOUS
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAYERS. IN FACT, THE
SOUNDING HAD A CALCULATED PWAT OF 1.44", BUT SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT SUGGESTED ALMOST AN INCH OF THIS WATER WAS BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND 850MB. ALL OF THIS IS JUST TO SAY THAT, WHILE WE DO
NEED SOME RAINFALL IN OUR BACKYARD, WE COULDN'T QUITE GET PAST THE
CAP AND DRY AIR.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, SO THE "GOOD" NEWS IS
THAT HEAT INDICES ARE UNDER TRIPLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A
LITTLE MUGGY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED INT HE
SHORT TERM WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOW
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO SOMEWHAT INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE WEEK AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WANES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FEW TO SCT
SKIES BETWEEN FL015 AND 025. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 81 87 81 87 / 10 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page