523
FXUS62 KKEY 110817
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
417 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE TO MAJOR TODAY. TONIGHT, A
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT BREEZES WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HUMIDITY.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KEYS MID WEEK
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- BREEZES ON TRACK TO REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE HEAT HAS BEEN RATHER ABSURD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES REACHED 90F AT KEY WEST, AND THE WARM LOW
OF 84 DEGREES TIED THE MONTHLY RECORD. DEW POINTS ROSE TO 78
DEGREES AT THE AIRPORT, WHICH WAS ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE VALUE. HEAT INDICES ROSE TO 100 TO 105F DURING THE WORST
OF THE HEATING. SUMMER IS ON ITS WAY, FOR BETTER AND WORSE.
DESPITE THE UNRELENTING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THE FIRST SIGNS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE ARE VISIBLE. KBYX RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ARE
OBSERVING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERNMOST FLORIDA STRAITS. ALOFT,
STREAMS OF HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. WEST OF TAMPA, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE KEYS. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IS ON ITS WAY.
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFUSE
INSTEAD OF FOCUSED, AND DESPITE THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
BOUNDARY, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE KEYS. THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO
HELP AGAINST THE ONGOING DROUGHT. IN ADDITION, THIS PERIOD OF
INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES, 30 PERCENT AT POINTS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. A REDEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER THIS WEEK
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AFTERWARDS, THE PATTERN FAVORS RETURNING TO THE HOT AND
MUGGY WEATHER WE'RE CURRENTLY SEEING. MAKE SURE TO STAY COOL, STAY
HYDRATED, AND DO WHAT YOU CAN TO MANAGE THE HEAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS NEARSHORE WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN TODAY WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DRY LAYERS OF AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH THE FRONT MAY
BE ABLE TO BRING A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEK, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZES WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AT FL200 WILL WAX AND WANE, WHILE LOW
CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NEAR SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT THE LATEST. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO BACK
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 81 91 79 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON 87 81 87 79 / 10 10 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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