803
FXUS62 KKEY 111524
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1124 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE TO MAJOR TODAY. TONIGHT, A
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT BREEZES WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HUMIDITY.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KEYS MID WEEK
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- BREEZES ON TRACK TO REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KBYX RADAR THIS MORNING HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS AN AREA
OF CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE KEYS. WHILE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL MORNING,
RAIN AMOUNTS ON LAND HAVE NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH. OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS, GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELITTE REVEALS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALONG THE REEF
OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS. AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES DOWN IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND
IT. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE'VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE HEAT HAS BEEN RATHER ABSURD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES REACHED 90F AT KEY WEST, AND THE WARM LOW
OF 84 DEGREES TIED THE MONTHLY RECORD. DEW POINTS ROSE TO 78
DEGREES AT THE AIRPORT, WHICH WAS ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGE VALUE. HEAT INDICES ROSE TO 100 TO 105F DURING THE WORST
OF THE HEATING. SUMMER IS ON ITS WAY, FOR BETTER AND WORSE.
DESPITE THE UNRELENTING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THE FIRST SIGNS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE ARE VISIBLE. KBYX RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ARE
OBSERVING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERNMOST FLORIDA STRAITS. ALOFT,
STREAMS OF HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. WEST OF TAMPA, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE KEYS. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IS ON ITS WAY.
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFUSE
INSTEAD OF FOCUSED, AND DESPITE THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
BOUNDARY, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE KEYS. THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO
HELP AGAINST THE ONGOING DROUGHT. IN ADDITION, THIS PERIOD OF
INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES, 30 PERCENT AT POINTS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. A REDEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER THIS WEEK
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AFTERWARDS, THE PATTERN FAVORS RETURNING TO THE HOT AND
MUGGY WEATHER WE'RE CURRENTLY SEEING. MAKE SURE TO STAY COOL, STAY
HYDRATED, AND DO WHAT YOU CAN TO MANAGE THE HEAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN TODAY WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DRY LAYERS OF AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH THE FRONT MAY
BE ABLE TO BRING A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEK, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZES WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MTH AIRPORT VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THERE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EYW THEREFORE NO MENTION OF VCSH FOR THAT AREA.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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