248
FXUS62 KKEY 120305
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
- AFTER A FEW DAYS OF LIGHTER WINDS, BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM IN MOST AREAS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A DEEP
LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH A DEEP BELT OF
WESTERLIES COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN, FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND
FLORIDA KEYS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WAS
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. INDEED, GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT. THE NEAREST
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA, WITH A
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ENTRENCHED LOCALLY. DATA FROM THE KEY
WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BASED AT LOW
LEVELS, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY DRY AIR AT LOW ALTITUDES. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR BASE REFLECTIVITY DATA HAVE
SHOWN VERY FEW IF ANY ECHOES OVER THE SERVICE AREA SINCE MID
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 80F IN THE
UPPER KEYS TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER KEYS. SITES IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND KEY WEST LIKELY ARE MUCH WARMER OWING TO A LONGER
TRAJECTORY OVER UNUSUALLY WARM (UPPER 80S) NEARSHORE WATERS, WHILE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SITES HAVE A SHORTER AND MORE DIRECT
TRAJECTORY OFF THE COOLER STRAITS OF FLORIDA (82-84F). ANYWAY, IF
THE TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST STAYS NEAR 84F OR ABOVE THROUGH 0100
LT, THEN ANOTHER DAILY WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD WILL BE
SHATTERED. MEANWHILE, CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
70S ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH HEAT INDICES STILL AROUND 90F IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST.
FOR OVERNIGHT, WARM, MUGGY, AND MOST LIKELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY, BREEZES ARE MOSTLY EAST 5-10 KNOTS
ACROSS KEYS COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET. ANOTHER
DAY OF LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IS EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
THROUGH 12/24Z, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. OCCASIONAL VFR ALTOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
12/12Z, WITH LITTLE OR NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WINDS HAVE GONE VARIABLE NEAR 3 KNOTS OR LESS NEAR THE SITE OF THE
175 AVE WILDFIRE IN SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE SHOT UP OVER 80 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
SO ANY SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE MONROE COUNTY LINE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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