410
FXUS62 KKEY 130824
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS
NEAR 80.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLIES THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE LIKELY TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM IN MOST AREAS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING
PROVIDES A GOOD EXAMPLE FOR WHY THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT CAN BE
VERY FRUSTRATING TO FORECAST. LAST NIGHT'S SOUNDING SAMPLED AN
ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, AND GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES THE ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT
MAY HAVE RISEN. LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION IS PRESENT TO PREVENT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KEYS, YET THE MOST ROBUST SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE KEYS. ONCE THAT AREA OF CONVERGENCE
DISSIPATED, SO DID THE SHOWERS. ALL WEATHER FEATURES POINT TO YET
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES OF INTEREST. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT
SYSTEM WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERLIES SEEN ACROSS THE
KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO PRIMED FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, WHICH INDICATES A RELEASE OF HEAT. FINALLY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALL THESE FEATURES
TOGETHER POINT TO A LOCAL SCALE PHENOMENA, A WIND SURGE ALONG THE
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
BREEZES WILL FRESHEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS. BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, FEW FRONTAL FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. VARIABLE WINDS
ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER DYNAMIC, TEMPERATURES ARE
UNLIKELY TO DROP BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED, THOUGH
STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST WE MIGHT SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM 70S
DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
FUNNELING MOISTURE-LADEN AIR ACROSS THE KEYS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, STATISTICAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
POSSIBLE BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING
ALOFT AND A STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS
OUT, SO NOTHING IS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. CHECK BACK IN A BIT FOR
MORE UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN HAWK
CHANNEL AND FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS.FROM SYNOPSIS,
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, A WELL DEFINED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND A MEAN LAYER
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ANTILLES WILL ACT TOGETHER TO CAUSE A
SURGE IN WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA COASTLINE. WESTERLY BREEZES ARE
ON TRACK TO FRESHEN FROM LIGHT TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE ON AND OFF ACROSS ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE LATE IN THE
WEEK, THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS FRESHEN DIRECTLY
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THUS GUSTS ARE ADDED TO THE MTH
TAF LATER IN THE DAY. FRESHENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MVFR CIG CONCERNS. NEAR SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN WESTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 79 89 79 / 10 20 10 0
MARATHON 88 79 86 79 / 20 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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