583
FXUS62 KKEY 131429
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE GULF, WITH AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE, ALBEIT FRESHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUD LINE, INCLUDING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF BIG PINE KEY. THIS CLOUD LINE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THE BREEZES FRESHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THIS FEATURE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR-ZERO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR
THE KEYS. NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS,
INCLUDING EASTERN HAWK CHANNEL AND THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN GULF, A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL INTERACT TO SUPPORT A WIND SURGE OVER THE KEYS MARINE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WANING PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SLACKENING BREEZES BY LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING FRESHENING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
IN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLIES, A BROKEN CLOUD LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. OWED TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AS WELL AS
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE, MENTION OF IMPACTS TO THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS IS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS
FEATURE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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