801
FXUS62 KKEY 131831
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
231 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
A BROKEN CLOUD LINE HAS SUPPORTED SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, MAINLY MTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR-SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND 03Z, WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LESS FREQUENT LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING
PROVIDES A GOOD EXAMPLE FOR WHY THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT CAN BE
VERY FRUSTRATING TO FORECAST. LAST NIGHT'S SOUNDING SAMPLED AN
ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, AND GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES THE ENVIRONMENTAL PWAT
MAY HAVE RISEN. LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION IS PRESENT TO PREVENT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KEYS, YET THE MOST ROBUST SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE KEYS. ONCE THAT AREA OF CONVERGENCE
DISSIPATED, SO DID THE SHOWERS. ALL WEATHER FEATURES POINT TO YET
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES OF INTEREST. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT
SYSTEM WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERLIES SEEN ACROSS THE
KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO PRIMED FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, WHICH INDICATES A RELEASE OF HEAT. FINALLY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALL THESE FEATURES
TOGETHER POINT TO A LOCAL SCALE PHENOMENA, A WIND SURGE ALONG THE
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
BREEZES WILL FRESHEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS. BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, FEW FRONTAL FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. VARIABLE WINDS
ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER DYNAMIC, TEMPERATURES ARE
UNLIKELY TO DROP BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED, THOUGH
STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST WE MIGHT SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM 70S
DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
FUNNELING MOISTURE-LADEN AIR ACROSS THE KEYS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, STATISTICAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
POSSIBLE BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING
ALOFT AND A STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS
OUT, SO NOTHING IS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. CHECK BACK IN A BIT FOR
MORE UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS,
INCLUDING EASTERN HAWK CHANNEL AND THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN GULF, A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL INTERACT TO SUPPORT A WIND SURGE OVER THE KEYS MARINE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WANING PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SLACKENING BREEZES BY LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING FRESHENING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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