109
FXUS62 KKEY 291457
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1057 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.
- AFTER THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (10% TO 20%) OF RAIN
AND THUNDER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED AN UNINHIBITED LOWER TROPOSPHERE, WITH
AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DETECTING FAIR WEATHER CUMULI SLOWLY CONGLOMERATING ALONG THE
FAVORED LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS, WITH KBYX RADAR DETECTING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE IN-HOUSE WATERSPOUT INDEX SAMPLED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDING WAS 24%, IMPLYING A 24% OF AN OBSERVED
WATERSPOUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE IS A BIT OF A DRY POCKET ABOVE 850 MB, WHICH MAY
SQUELCH SHOWER ACTIVITY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS REASONING, ELECTED TO
NUDGE POPS TO LOW-END CHANCE LEVELS (AROUND 30%), MAINLY THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE
INHERITED FULL FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
BREEZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. THE NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANY DEVELOPING SHOWER WILL BE SLOW MOVING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF VCSH AT EYW, BUT GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, DID ADD A
WINDOW FOR VCSH AT MTH FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON 87 80 87 80 / 30 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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