220
FXUS62 KKEY 291722
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
122 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.
- AFTER THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (10% TO 20%) OF RAIN
AND THUNDER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE REGENERATION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. ANY
DEVELOPING SHOWER WILL BE SLOW MOVING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUB-
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY IN
EVOLUTION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT THE TERMINALS
FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, ALBEIT WEAK. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
RAINFALL FORECAST AS THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL LIFTING MECHANISMS
AVAILABLE TO LIFT THIS NOTABLY DAMP AIR MASS. ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS GOING TO DEPEND ON LIFT AT THE MESOSCALE, SUCH AS
THE OFFSHORE BREEZE OVERNIGHT FROM THE PENINSULA, OR LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. THE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD IMPLIES THAT SHOWERS WILL TRACK SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES, ANY HEAVY
SHOWER THAT JUST SO HAPPENS TO SET UP OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THIS SET UP
ISN'T NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF ANY KIND OF WASHOUT CONDITIONS,
AND THIS ISN'T A SLAM DUNK RAIN MAKER, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT TRACK OVER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW, WE'LL OPT TO KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
"BEST" CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER KEYS SINCE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN EASILY DRIFT ACROSS THE KEY LARGO AREA.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ANOTHER INCREASE IN
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THAT IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES
(OBVIOUSLY). ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL, BUT WE ARE SIMPLY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO MAKE A CALL
LIKE THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
BREEZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. THE NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON 87 80 87 80 / 30 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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