646
FXUS62 KKEY 300231
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE.
- ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (10% TO 20%) OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS THE KEYS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
MEAN LAYER RIDGE THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. MARINE OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
KEYS ARE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS A
RESULT. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EARLIER, A CLOUD LINE REMAINED OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS
WHICH PRODUCED MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SUGARLOAF KEY. MRMS DATA SHOWED ESTIMATED ONE HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EARLIER OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ON SUGARLOAF KEY WITH
GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS. ADDITIONALLY, ONCE THE CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY
FIZZLED OUT, SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM WERE ONGOING ACROSS
FLORIDA BAY AND THE UPPER KEYS. ONE LONE SHOWER CONTINUES AT THIS
HOUR TO THE WEST OF BLACKWATER SOUND. MRMS DATA SHOWED ESTIMATED 3
HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
THROUGHOUT THE UPPER KEYS WITH AN ISOLATED POCKET OF UP TO ONE
INCH BETWEEN ROUTE 1/CARD SOUND AND OCEAN REEF. GOES 19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH MOIST
LAYERS BETWEEN 950 TO 900 MB AND AROUND 500 TO 450 MB. THERE IS FAIRLY
STOUT DRY AIR BETWEEN THE MOIST LAYERS WITH MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 450
MB. THE WIND PROFILE IS CHAOTIC AND INDICATIVE OF MORE OF A
DAYTIME CLOUD LINE REGIME RATHER THAT NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO DECENT BETWEEN 1300-1800 J/KG. ALSO, THE PWAT
VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.17 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THE DATE. OUTSIDE OF ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES THROUGHOUT THE
KEYS, EXPECTING A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THESE REMNANT
BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH BREEZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES. THE NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
ALSO EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK, SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOR A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CLOUD LINE DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE, A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON 87 80 87 80 / 30 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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