490
FXUS62 KKEY 300954
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
554 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
BREEZES WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT TIMES.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT (10% TO 20%)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MULTIPLE BOUTS OF SHOWERY WEATHER WAS SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE KKEY SOUNDING FROM LAST NIGHT
CALCULATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.05" WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH
WIDESPREAD SATELLITE DERIVED VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES. MULTIPLE
GHOST BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA SERVED AS THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR
THESE SHOWERS, BUT ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN FELL
ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS. MRMS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE NEAR TAVERNIER WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS
LOCALIZED AREA WERE TOTALS OF UP TO HALF OF AN INCH. THIS SPEAKS
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WE CAN MANAGE TO GET, AND
WHY THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. IT'S EASY TO
SAY THAT IT WILL RAIN SOMEWHERE WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA, IT'S
MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE IT WILL RAIN.
OUR KBYX RADAR IS STILL DETECTING A FEW GHOST BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA, AND VIRTUALLY ANY OF THEM CAN TRIGGER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA, WE’RE OPTING TO KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES JUST BELOW
CLIMO FOR NOW. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS POTENTIAL REVERSE
CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FORECASTS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WINDOW OF SOUTHWESTERLIES AROUND LUNCH TIME. IF
A CLOUDLINE CAN DEVELOP, THEN THIS WOULD FAVOR RAINFALL CHANCES,
BUT THAT IS HARD TO FORECAST WHEN OUR WIND FIELD IS CURRENTLY SO
VARIABLE AND NEBULOUS.
THIS LOW UNCERTAINTY FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE. A MOIST AIR MASS
IS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
90TH PERCENTILE. THE PAST FEW SOUNDINGS FROM KKEY HAVE SHOWN THAT
THIS MOISTURE IS DISTRIBUTED THROUGH MOST OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF AREAS OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS, SO ANY SMALL SCALE TRIGGER SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK, POSSIBLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BETTER LIFT
TO THE GENERAL AREA, EVEN THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR MAY SNEAK IN ALONG
THE VERTICAL PROFILE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
BREEZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. THE NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS BY MID WEEK, SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH SCT CLOUDS
NEAR FL020. AN OVC DECK WILL SIT NEAR FL150, BUT NO CONSEQUENCES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES, NEAR 20 PERCENT, FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF TIME FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AREN’T
EXPECTED IN GENERAL, BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF WARRANTED DUE
TO ISOLATED STRONGER SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE NEAR
5 KNOTS, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
GUSTS CAN BE STRONGER AND ERRATIC.
OF NOTE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY
ON THIS DAY IN 1999, A WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE AS AN F0 TORNADO
ALONG THE NORTH END OF DUVAL STREET. THERE WAS NO DAMAGE REPORTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 89 81 / 20 10 20 10
MARATHON 87 81 87 81 / 20 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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