753
FXUS62 KKEY 310228
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT (10% TO 20%)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS MEAN LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY
VARIABLE BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS AS A RESULT. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN A CLOUD LINE PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS BETWEEN CUDJOE KEY AND NO NAME KEY. MRMS DATA ESTIMATED
3 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF UP TO A HALF INCH. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS TRAVERSING THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE TONIGHT WITH A CAPE
VALUE MEASURED OF 3109 J/KG. SUFFICE TO SAY, IF WE HAD ANY
MECHANISM TO HELP LIFT THE AIR AT ALL AND DIURNAL HEATING, IT
WOULD BE OFF TO THE RACES TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
POTENTIALLY INHIBITING FACTOR TONIGHT THOUGH COULD BE THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS SAMPLED FROM AROUND 950 MB TO 500 MB WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.13 INCHES
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE
ALSO REPRESENTS A CHAOTIC REGIME ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. BASED ON THE
ABOVE, NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN MOISTEN UP THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS, IT COULD BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE TIME PERIOD. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH BREEZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES. THE NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
ALSO EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK, SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR CIGS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
POTENTIAL LIGHTNING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 89 81 / 20 10 20 10
MARATHON 87 81 87 81 / 20 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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