255
FXUS62 KKEY 310924
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
524 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT (NEAR 20%) THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIRLY CLAM CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (WE ARE NOT COMPLAINING). A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACKED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, AND CROSSED THE
ISLAND CHAIN OCCASIONALLY, BUT RADAR DERIVED ESTIMATES SUGGEST
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MAY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ANY
GIVEN ISLAND COMMUNITY. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE HAVE CONTINUED TO FEEL
RELATIVELY GROSS AS DEW POINTS SAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
COUPLED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WERE IN THE LOWER 80S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVERNIGHT WERE ANYWHERE FROM NEAR 90F IN THE UPPER KEYS TO
THE MID 90S IN THE LOWER KEYS. WE IMAGINE SITTING OUTSIDE AT
NIGHT FEELS SIMILAR TO SITTING IN A POT OF WATER WHILE WAITING FOR
IT TO COME TO A SIMMER. DUE TO THE LACK OF TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT, THIS SETUP RAISES HEAT RISK CONCERNS WITH
RESPECT TO ANYONE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PATTERN WILL SEE
LITTLE CHANGE. BREEZES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT MAY
ASSUME A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WOULD OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR REVERSE CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW,
AROUND 3 KNOTS, THIS COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL WHERE ANY CLOUDLINE DEVELOPS. ALL OF THIS DEPENDS ON
WHETHER ON NOT SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS
HAPPEN, SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
REAL TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND SENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THE
PENINSULA. GENERALLY, THIS MEANS AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES, BUT
ONE CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SAHARAN DUST POTENTIALLY
ARRIVING AT THE SAME TIME. GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDOING RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SPECIFICALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK,
SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED DUE TO FEW CLOUDS BASED AT MULTIPLE
LEVELS BETWEEN FL010 AND FL030. CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR EITHER
TERMINAL ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
REGARD TO TIMING. OPTING TO KEEP TAFS FREE OF SHOWERS UNTIL TIMING
BECOMES CLEARER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 20 10 20 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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