710
FXUS62 KKEY 311423
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT (NEAR 20%) THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE MONTH OF MAY IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IN FULL SWING. THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING
SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-RECORD HIGH PWAT, NEAR 2.3",
FOR THE DAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE KEYS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AMIDST LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUTDOOR CONDITIONS ARE MUGGY
AND STAGNANT. EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S TODAY.
HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN, SO TRY TO FIND RELIEF FROM THE
WEATHER WHERE ONE CAN.
THERE ARE A FEW QUIRKS TO THE ONGOING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR DIRECTING DEEP LAYERS OF MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN
TOWARDS THE KEYS, AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING, BUT THOSE
WINDS ARE ALSO DIRECTING A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST TOWARDS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE SOUNDING SAMPLED A DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT
BELOW 500 MB. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT WHILE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST, A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERLIES IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A REVERSE
CLOUD LINE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOUD LINE MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE MORNING AS SEEN BY KBYX IS
SPARSE, POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT. OVERALL, TAKE
PRECAUTIONS FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PATTERN WILL SEE
LITTLE CHANGE. BREEZES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT MAY
ASSUME A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WOULD OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR REVERSE CLOUDLINE DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW,
AROUND 3 KNOTS, THIS COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL WHERE ANY CLOUDLINE DEVELOPS. ALL OF THIS DEPENDS ON
WHETHER ON NOT SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS
HAPPEN, SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
REAL TIME.
GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND SENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THE
PENINSULA. GENERALLY, THIS MEANS AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES, BUT
ONE CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SAHARAN DUST POTENTIALLY
ARRIVING AT THE SAME TIME. GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDOING RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SPECIFICALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK,
SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 20 10 20 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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