644
FXUS62 KKEY 010228
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT (NEAR 20%) THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS WITH THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CUBA. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE KEYS. MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE RECORDING MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES AS A RESULT. IT ALSO WAS AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS. A RATHER FEISTY THUNDERSTORM ON THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND NEAR TURKEY POINT SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE KEYS. THIS STORM AFFECTED THE BARNES SOUND AND BLACKWATER
SOUND AREA OF THE FLORIDA BAY AS WELL AS MANY COMMUNITIES OF THE
UPPER KEYS, ESPECIALLY FROM TAVERNIER NORTHEASTWARD TO OCEAN REEF.
MRMS DATA SHOWED ESTIMATED 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO
ONE INCH MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TAVERNIER WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF OCEAN REEF. AS THE THUNDERSTORM MOVED
THROUGH CARYSFORT AT THE EDGE OF THE REEF, A GUST TO 28 KNOTS (~32
MPH) WAS OBSERVED AT 6:07 PM EDT. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALLY
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE UPPER KEYS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW IMPACTING LONG KEY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE KEYS BUT MUCH WEAKER THAN THE ACTIVITY EARLIER.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S,
EXCEPT UPPER 70S FOR THE UPPER KEYS IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A MEASURED CAPE
VALUE OF 2493 J/KG. NO WONDER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT HAS
BEEN BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO FEED OFF AS WELL AS A BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE KEYS. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.41
INCHES WHICH IS A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE AS THIS VALUE WAS
ABOVE THE DAILY MAX. SINCE WE HAVE MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS
(MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, A TRIGGER, ALBEIT WEAK, WITH IT BEING AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY), THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE MORE CONVECTION
WON'T TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
THOUGH WOULD MOST LIKELY REMAIN WEAK SINCE WE DON'T HAVE A SUPER
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM LIKE A COLD FRONT TO REALLY RAISE THE AIR
PARCELS. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES. NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS BY MID WEEK, SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AS WELL AS
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
BETTER CHANCE TIMING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY,
VCSH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 20 10 20 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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