726
FXUS62 KKEY 011739
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
139 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY AND
LINGERING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
- WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK, LOWS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED A POTENT CLOUD LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE WATERSPOUTS WERE OBSERVED
FROM SOUTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO LOWER MATECUMBE KEY OVER
THE COURSE OF TWO HOURS. A RADAR DERIVED ESTIMATE FOR STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF LONG KEY WAS 2.6 INCHES. ESTIMATES PLACE
AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
MARATHON AND DUCK KEY.
HAZARDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE LIKELY TO
BE IN THE LOWER AND UPPER KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LOWER
KEYS WAS NOT TAPPED AS HEAVILY FOR CONVECTION, AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTH FROM THE EVERGLADES WOULD PROVIDE A SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS. KEEP WATCHING THE RADAR, WET SEASON IS
NOWHERE NEAR OVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES GOING BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALSO EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY MID
WEEK, SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN BREEZES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
CONCERN FOR EYW AND MTH. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR OR DURING SHRA. TSRA ARE MORE LIKELY NEAR MTH.
ADDITIONAL TS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GENERAL AIRSPACE ALONG ANOTHER
MORNING CLOUD LINE OR LINGERING BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND.
EXPECT PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS NEAR THE TERMINALS. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
AS THE DAY GOES ON, A FEW FACTORS ARE AT PLAY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WINDS
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN MAY ASSUME A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. IF THIS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS SUSTAINED JUST
LONG ENOUGH, A REVERSE CLOUDLINE COULD DEVELOP. THE SKINNY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY INDIVIDUAL SHOWER COULD BECOME
AN EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCER, AND THIS GOES FOR CLOUDLINES TOO.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE COLLIDING RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR. ANY BOUNDARY COLLISION COULD TRIGGER NEW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT SOMEONE IS GOING TO
SEE RAIN TODAY, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF WHO? SINCE THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AT PLAY, AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM MAINLAND
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON, WE'LL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(AROUND 30%) FOR THESE COMMUNITIES. FOR THE LOWER KEYS, WE'RE
BETTING ON THE LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING, AND ONCE THIS
FIZZLES OUT WE MAY BE DONE FOR THE DAY, SO WE'LL ADVERTISE A 20%
CHANCE FOR THESE COMMUNITIES.
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PLAYS OUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION
OF TROUGHING DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STALLING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE PENINSULA. THE CLOSER THAT FRONT CAN GET, THE
BETTER LIFT WE WILL SEE IN THE ENVIRONMENT, SO THIS WILL IMPACT
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. EITHER WAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING DRASTICALLY DRIER AIR, BUT KNOCKING OFF A FEW DEGREES
FROM OUR DEW POINT WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT LESS
MUGGY. AFTER THE PARENT TROUGH HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE AREA, CLOSER TO NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO SETTLE
IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 91 80 90 / 10 20 30 50
MARATHON 81 88 80 87 / 10 20 30 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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