349
FXUS62 KKEY 021736
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
136 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE AND OFTEN VARIABLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, PEAKING AROUND WEDNESDAY.
- AFTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP VCSH NEARBY
AT MTH AND SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. EXPECT OCCASIONAL TSRA AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR CLOUD LINES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL
TREND UPWARDS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE SWATH OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OUR AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY PEAK MID WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AND THE TAIL END OF THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH SCRAPS BY OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION, SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY BE PRESENT AT
THE SAME TIME, FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH
PAST THE KEYS AS ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND SURFACE TROUGHING LIFTS OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. DEW POINTS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS, BUT
HOW FAR DEPENDS HOW FAR THE SURFACE HIGH IS ABLE TO PRESS ACROSS
OUR AREA. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
REMAINING QUITE HIGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING
INTO FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP A WEAK AND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
KEYS, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS.
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DEEP MOISTURE. FROM MID WEEK
AND BEYOND, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OFF OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BRING ABOUT MODEST FRESHENING NORTHEAST
TO EASTERLY BREEZES AND RAIN CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 88 78 87 / 40 60 70 70
MARATHON 81 87 78 86 / 40 60 70 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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