863
FXUS62 KKEY 030231
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARDS,
PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM THE HEAT, THOUGH WITH
THE WETTER PATTERN ARRIVING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS
TO NEAR NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE EASTERN SIDE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO
FLORIDA, WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE KEYS FINALLY SEE SOME
FLOW COMPARED TO THE NON EXISTENT FLOW OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
RECORDING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
SOUTH FLORIDA HAD QUITE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL ONGOING. FOR THE KEYS, KBYX
RADAR SHOWED SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFT OFF THE MAINLAND DURING
THE EVENING. THIS LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
THE UPPER KEYS AND THE SURROUNDING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
CURRENTLY, THE ACTIVITY REMAINS BELOW THUNDERSTORM WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING. MRMS DATA SHOWS 3 HOURLY ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE
FOUND JUST OFFSHORE OF PLANTATION KEY IN FLORIDA BAY WHERE IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH WAS ESTIMATED. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, EXCEPT UPPER 70S FOR THE UPPER
KEYS IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH A CAPE
VALUE MEASURED OF 1351 J/KG. WHILE THE PROFILE REMAINS GENERALLY
MOIST, THERE ARE SOME DRY AIR LAYERS THAT COULD INHIBIT ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THE LAYERS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND
800 MB AND 750 MB TO 550 MB. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.01
INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
DATE. THE WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT
OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS. WITH
VIRTUALLY ALL THE AIR UNTAPPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEYS, THESE
BOUNDARIES MOST LIKELY WILL FLARE UP WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE,
HOWEVER, ONCE WE BEGIN TO GET THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MORE FEROCITY. THEREFORE,
CURRENT THINKING IS TO HOLD WITH THE 40% OVERNIGHT LEADING TO NO
FORECAST CHANGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. EXPECT RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SCRAPE THROUGH KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF FRESHENED
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLIP TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS
SET TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL AROUND
03/12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR CIGS
AND VIS, PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION, AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS ALSO THE SLIM POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY, THOUGH, THIS
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 81 88 78 / 30 40 60 70
MARATHON 88 81 87 78 / 30 40 60 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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