684
FXUS62 KKEY 030835
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
435 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING MAY
STRENGTHEN TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND LARGE SWINGS BOTH UP AND DOWN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARDS,
PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HELP TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWARDS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AS AN EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR
THE KEYS, THIS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED WIND
FIELD THIS MORNING. THE BROAD SWATH OF HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES, BUT THERE WERE A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION. CONVECTION WAS ABLE TO FIRE ACROSS MAINLY THE UPPER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS A RESULT OF RELIC BOUNDARIES MOVING
OFF OF THE MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE
SAME TIME THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD REACHING INTO THE KEYS AND STEADILY PUSH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY THE KEYS.
ADDING TO THIS MESS, A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL GULF LOW THAT WILL
SLOWLY LUMBER ITS WAY NORTHWARD AS IT DEEPENS. THE BAND OF
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA AND CAPE WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST MODEST. ALTOGETHER, THIS POINTS TO A SEVERAL DAY
PERIOD OF MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, AS
WELL AS THE THREAT OF BOUTS OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES
TO EASTERLIES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE INCOMING FRESHENING
NORTHEASTERLIES, ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO STYMIE THE RECENT HOT WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS
AND LOWS TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEW
POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WITH SOME
SLIGHT LOWERING LATER IN THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH.
TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL WARMING, REDUCING CAPE SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND
INHIBITION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED. THE OLD EASTERN UNITED
STATES SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES TO TREND
DOWNWARDS AND RAIN CHANCES FALL BACK TO NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY AT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. WITH THIS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BLANKETING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW. IN ADDITION, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP, PEAKING TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT BREEZES THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO AT LEAST GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF STRONGER BREEZES. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS UNUSUALLY HIGH, AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS, THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF LOW,
AND THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST AND EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF LOW WILL
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN RESPONSE, BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS, AS WILL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
A WET PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE KEYS. AS A RESULT, WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS, AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WILL START OUT LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY, WITH A
LOT OF VARIABILITY. CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES MAY BUMP NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY BREEZES UP INTO THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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