813
FXUS62 KKEY 031412
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1012 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES TONIGHT. THE WIND FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE SWINGS BOTH UP AND DOWN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARDS,
PEAKING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HELP TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
GOES SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHT NEARLY
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF, A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LESS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE KEYS. MOST OF THE RETURNS ON KBYX RADAR BEFORE SUNRISE
WERE HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF BURSTS OF MORNING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS AND FLORIDA BAY
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FORM AFTER SUNRISE.
THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING HIGHLIGHTS WHY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
TO DEVELOP. DESPITE A PWAT VALUE NEAR THE DAILY RECORD, DRY
LAYERS WERE PRESENT IN THE FROM THE SURFACE TO 13,000 FEET. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE BOTTOM 10,000 FEET WERE AS HIGH AS 10 F,
WHICH IS SURPRISING FOR THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THIS
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MEANT ESTIMATED CAPE VALUES ROSE ABOVE 2500
J/KG. ENOUGH INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A
FRONT AND UPPER ALTITUDE TROUGH AS A SOURCE OF LIFT WAS SUFFICIENT
FOR WPC TO PLACE THE FLORIDA KEYS IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
RADAR.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
A FAIRLY COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD REACHING INTO THE KEYS AND STEADILY PUSH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY THE KEYS.
ADDING TO THIS MESS, A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL GULF LOW THAT WILL
SLOWLY LUMBER ITS WAY NORTHWARD AS IT DEEPENS. THE BAND OF
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA AND CAPE WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST MODEST. ALTOGETHER, THIS POINTS TO A SEVERAL DAY
PERIOD OF MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, AS
WELL AS THE THREAT OF BOUTS OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES
TO EASTERLIES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE INCOMING FRESHENING
NORTHEASTERLIES, ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO STYMIE THE RECENT HOT WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS
AND LOWS TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEW
POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WITH SOME
SLIGHT LOWERING LATER IN THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH.
TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL WARMING, REDUCING CAPE SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND
INHIBITION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED. THE OLD EASTERN UNITED
STATES SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES TO TREND
DOWNWARDS AND RAIN CHANCES FALL BACK TO NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY AT A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. WITH THIS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BLANKETING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE AND DEEPEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW. IN ADDITION, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP, PEAKING TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT BREEZES THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO AT LEAST GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF STRONGER BREEZES. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS UNUSUALLY HIGH, AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE HIGH BUILDS, THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE GULF LOW,
AND THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST AND EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF LOW WILL
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN RESPONSE, BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS, AS WILL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WAVES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE BOUTS OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL OCCUR AT
EYW AND MTH. TIMING OF THESE PERIODS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS, OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST
TO EASTERLY BREEZES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 78 88 78 / 60 80 80 70
MARATHON 87 77 85 78 / 70 70 80 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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