382
FXUS62 KKEY 040232
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. THE WIND FORECAST
REMAINS UNUSUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE SWINGS
BOTH UP AND DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, PEAKING THURSDAY.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WELL, IT SURE HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONVECTION WAS INITIALLY ACROSS THE SE GULF
WATERS WHICH EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER
KEYS AND STRENGTHENED AS THEY DID SO. THIS PROMPTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE AREA FROM KEY LARGO TO ROUTE 1 CARD
SOUND ALONG WITH SEVERAL SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT WEAKENED. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONGER CONVECTION FORMED ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTANT STRAITS
WHICH ALSO BECAME QUITE STRONG AND WARRANTED WARNINGS DUE TO THE
UNTAPPED AIR IN THIS LOCATION PRIOR. ALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS SINCE WANED. FURTHER WEST,
CONVECTION ALSO GOT QUITE ROBUST ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVED TOWARDS KEY WEST. AS IT GOT CLOSER THOUGH, THE
ACTIVITY FIZZLED. ATTENTION THEN TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST STRAITS
WHERE TWO CELLS WERE BEING WATCHED FOR CONSISTENT ROTATION. THIS
ACTIVITY IS STILL CURRENTLY ONGOING. OTHER THAN THAT, MAINLY
STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS AS THE
AREA IS WORKED OVER FOR THE TIME BEING. MRMS DATA SHOWS 6 HOURLY
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ALONG THE CHAIN WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE AREA FROM KEY LARGO TO
ROUTE 1 CARD SOUND FROM THE EARLIER POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BREEZES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
SLACKENING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MUCH COOLER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO REGISTERING IN THE UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOIST PROFILE,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650 MB. BELOW 650 MB, THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR, THOUGH, THE OVERALL SOUNDING AS A WHOLE IS VERY
MOISTURE LADEN. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.26 INCHES WHICH IS A
NEW MAX BY 0.01 INCHES FOR THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 2.25
INCHES. THE WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT IS PURE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS OF 25 KNOTS AT 1000 FT DECREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS FOR 2000 TO 3000 FT. INSTABILITY IS STILL QUITE HIGH
WITH A MEASURED CAPE VALUE OF 1978 J/KG. BASED ON ALL THIS, SINCE
WE HAD CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FOR THE TIME
BEING. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN
QUITE BENIGN FOR MUCH OF THE KEYS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE WITH POTENTIALLY NEEDING SOME DAYTIME
HEATING THURSDAY MORNING FIRST TO HELP GET THINGS GOING.
THEREFORE, OUTSIDE OF ONGOING STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT, THE NEXT
ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY WAIT TILL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THIS, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE FOR THE
SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. FROM SYNOPSIS,
THE COMBINATION OF A ROBUST EASTERN UNITED STATES SURFACE HIGH, A
DEEPENING GULF LOW, AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
KEYS WILL KEEP BREEZES MODERATE TO FRESH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH, AND PERIODS OF HIGHER BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT OF PERIODS OF HIGHER BREEZES
WILL REMAIN. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND BREEZES DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX RADAR SHOWS MAINLY
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN
OUTSIDE OF THE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN. THAT BEING SAID, LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE, THEREFORE, THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH, THERE IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING VCSH IN THE TAF. ONCE AGAIN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VIS AND CIGS, PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 78 88 78 / 60 80 80 70
MARATHON 87 77 85 78 / 70 70 80 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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