232
FXUS62 KKEY 041725
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
125 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
HOWEVER, LARGE SWINGS BOTH UP AND DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE KEYS. SHOWERS REDEVELOPED IN A
CLOUD LINE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS NEAR
MTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO WAX AND WANE AFTER SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE COMBINATION OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
KEEP WINDS GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE KEYS. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED, WITH INHIBITION REMAINING LOW
WITH MODERATE CAPE. AS A RESULT SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SURGES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW
LAST EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CONTINUED INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WILL LINK WITH RIDGING DRIVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
IN MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOWER LEVELS. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AND
THEN EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW EASTERLY BREEZES TO TREND DOWNWARDS SLIGHTLY.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SETUP ACROSS CUBA IN THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DEW
POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HANG ON ACROSS
OUT REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. WHILE THE FINE DETAILS IMPARTED BY THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS CUBA WILL KEEP SOME MEASURE OF
UNCERTAINTY, IN GENERAL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
HARASS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A VERY DISTURBED ENVIRONMENT MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC
WIND SURGES INTO MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TREND DOWNWARDS THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE
HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 87 78 88 / 60 70 50 50
MARATHON 77 86 78 86 / 60 70 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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