145
FXUS62 KKEY 050245
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
HOWEVER, LARGE SWINGS BOTH UP AND DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE KEYS,
THOUGH, NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT IT WAS JUST 24 HOURS AGO. KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE THE ENTIRE TIME WITH WAXING AND WANING
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS, ESPECIALLY OCEAN REEF WHERE MRMS DATA
SHOWS ESTIMATED 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.
THE REST OF THE UPPER KEYS SAW ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A
SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS
MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TODAY WITH ONLY ESTIMATES OF A
TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WAS
ESTIMATED TO HAVE OCCURRED NORTH OF KEY WEST OVER THE WATER WHERE
UPWARDS OF AN INCH WAS ESTIMATED. IN SUMMARY, THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OCEAN REEF AND JUST NORTH OF KEY WEST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS
IS PROMOTING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY
15 TO 20 KNOTS AT MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEAR 80
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A VERY MOIST PROFILE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. INSTABILITY IS ALSO QUITE HIGH
WITH A CAPE VALUE MEASURED OF 2145 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO QUITE
INTERESTING AS ALMOST ALL THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA HAS NOT
PRODUCED ANY LIGHTNING OUTSIDE OF THE COUPLE CELLS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DISTANT STRAITS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT. THE PWAT VALUE
MEASURED WAS 2.22 INCHES WHICH IS 0.04 INCHES BELOW THE MAX FOR
THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE IS UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SINCE WE CONTINUE TO HAVE
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, INSTABILITY, AND A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS ON AND
OFF SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
COMBINATION OF AN EXPANSIVE EASTERN UNITED STATES SURFACE HIGH, A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL KEEP BREEZES GENERALLY
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH,
AND PERIODS OF HIGHER BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DUE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS TOWARDS
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND BREEZES TREND
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A DRIER REGIME TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE, WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. SINCE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN QUITE HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE PATTERN, VCSH WAS
LEFT IN THE TAF THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 87 77 87 78 / 70 60 70 50
MARATHON 86 77 86 78 / 80 60 70 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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