338
FXUS62 KKEY 050800
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
HOWEVER, LARGE SWINGS BOTH UP AND DOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS STEADILY GAINING MORE CONTROL OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER AWAY ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES IS MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER, FOR THE TIME
BEING, DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH, WITH LAST EVENINGS
SOUNDING DEPICTED A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 2.16 INCHES. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME FAINT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ANOTHER UNUSUAL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOCAL RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA, AND A LARGE STRATIFORM SHIELD JUST
WEST OUR WESTERN ZONES. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN UP IN THE MID
70S WITH DRIER AIR NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES DUE
TO THE COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE, WEAK CAPE, AND LACK OF
INHIBITION. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE
EASTERLY BREEZES. SURFACE STREAMLINES SUGGEST THAT INCOMING AIR
WILL BE ARRIVING FROM HIGHER LATITUDES AND SHOULD HELP TO FINALLY
BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP FOR A SHORT WHILE
INTO THE LOWER 70S, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LOWER LATER IN THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER TOWARDS NORMAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL GAIN MORE
DOMINANCE OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THE BAND OF INCREASED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA, THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEVELOPING LOWER
TO MID LEVEL INHIBITION. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND SLOWLY
DOWNWARDS, BECOMING A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE. DEW POINTS WILL
TREND BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S AS THE STREAMLINES VEER MORE
EASTERLY. IN ADDITION, INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL SLACKEN FURTHER AS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH
TROUGH APPROACHES, BUT MAY PICK UP MODESTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS IT PUSHES WEST OF THE KEYS. THE MORE VEERED FLOW
SHOULD HELP BUMP DEW POINTS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY MID
WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING WHERE THINGS
GO FROM HERE. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY, THEN MARCH EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WILL TREND SLOWLY DOWNWARDS. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL TOWARDS
NORMAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE POINTS TO BROAD TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS CUBA AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BREEZES
FURTHER WHILE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN ADDITION, THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY. AS A RESULT,
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. AWAY FROM SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT
OF THE EAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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