963
FXUS62 KKEY 061552
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A LOT LESS ACTIVITY IS APPEARING ON KBYX RADAR TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO THE ACTION WE GOT YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LINGERING IN THE DISTANT STRAITS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS BUT BEYOND THAT THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN SHOWER FREE. SKIES
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACCORDING TO THE GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELITTE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES MAKING FOR A REALLY NICE DAY! ALONG THE REEF, WINDS ARE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KNOTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
PAN OUT LIKE THIS MORNING HAS, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING REVEALED LESS
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE TODAY LIMITING THAT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT IN SUMMERTIME SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS BROAD HIGH SITS OFF THE SE
ATLANTIC.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE LONG WEEK OF RIDICULOUS RAINFALL HAS FINALLY DRAWN TO A CLOSE
WITH THIS AFTERNOONS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IN THE LOWER
KEYS. ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS RECEIVED A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE. AFTER ZERO PRECIPITATION ECHOES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED OVER THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS TAPPED OUT. IN ADDITION, A BROAD SURFACE
THROUGH LOWER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST IS
DRIVING DRIER NEAR 70 DEW POINTS ACROSS THE KEYS ON GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES. SHARP RIDGING HAS BUILT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WITH THAT SAID, THE
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND INHIBITION IS ESSENTIALLY NON
EXISTENT. ALL THIS MEANS THAT WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THEIR PROBABILITIES ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE CAROLINA HIGH STEADILY PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
TRAILING A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, LOWS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80, AND DEW POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE MID
70S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WITH RIDGING DOMINANT. CAPE WILL BE MODEST AND INHIBITION WILL
REMAIN WEAK TO NON EXISTENT. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BROAD TROUGHING WILL PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS MIGRATING
TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES. CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
NEAR NORMAL. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO MID WEEK HOWEVER. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA. THIS MAY RESULT IN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. AS A CONSEQUENCE, RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES MAY RISE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL AROUND MID
WEEK. A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO FALL INTO PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN,
BUT FOR NOW, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT. THIS COULD
EASILY CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD TROUGH RIDING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A STALLED INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS WILL KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES MOSTLY GENTLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HEADING INTO MID WEEK, ALL OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGHING WILL SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN. HEADING INTO MID
WEEK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHENING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO RISE, PUSHING UP SHOWER AND
THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRIER AIR APPROACHING THE KEYS WILL LIMIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE VCSH IS NOT INCLUDED FOR THE TIME BEING.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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