263
FXUS62 KKEY 070756
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
356 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A BROAD SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT, SHARP RIDGING STRETCHES NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A TINY AMOUNT
OF CAPE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.49 INCHES, A LITTLE ABOVE THE
25TH PERCENTILE. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONE CLUSTER HARASSING THE UPPER
KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID 70S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRETCH OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. USUALLY WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS, BUT THEY MAY
BE BOLSTERED SLIGHTLY BY WEAK TROUGHING MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE MID THROUGH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME AND MIGRATE WESTWARD, CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR AND GOOD MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN HEADING
INTO MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED WESTWARD INTO
MEXICO AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS, WHILE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN AND TURN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SHARPLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMPLICATED AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO THE OVERALL EFFECTS ON OUR REGION. FOR THE TIME
BEING, WILL MAINTAIN THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS, BECOMING LIKELY BY
THURSDAY. THE MORE VEERED FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH DEW POINTS UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES EDGING UPWARDS TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
WEAK TROUGHING ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ARE MAINTAINING
MODERATE MOSTLY EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STABLE WHILE BROAD TROUGHING
MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL
KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. HEADING
TOWARDS MID WEEK, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER
HIGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, STRONGER TROUGHING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SPEEDS, DIRECTION, AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE BREEZES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE MOISTURE AND CONFLUENCE TRENDS UPWARDS. A
WETTER PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE FAR RANGE
OF THE MARINE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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