561
FXUS62 KKEY 071747
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
147 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ANY TIME BUT
CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A BROAD SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT, SHARP RIDGING STRETCHES NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A TINY AMOUNT
OF CAPE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.49 INCHES, A LITTLE ABOVE THE
25TH PERCENTILE. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONE CLUSTER HARASSING THE UPPER
KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID 70S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRETCH OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. USUALLY WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS, BUT THEY MAY
BE BOLSTERED SLIGHTLY BY WEAK TROUGHING MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE MID THROUGH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME AND MIGRATE WESTWARD, CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR AND GOOD MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN HEADING
INTO MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED WESTWARD INTO
MEXICO AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS, WHILE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN AND TURN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SHARPLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMPLICATED AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO THE OVERALL EFFECTS ON OUR REGION. FOR THE TIME
BEING, WILL MAINTAIN THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS, BECOMING LIKELY BY
THURSDAY. THE MORE VEERED FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH DEW POINTS UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES EDGING UPWARDS TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL STRETCH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS WEEK, IT WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY A NEW HIGH MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, HOLDING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES.
UNCERTAINTY PICKS UP HEADING INTO MID WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO
A ROBUST TROUGH MIGRATING WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SHOULD STAY GENTLE TO MODERATE, BUT COULD VARY QUITE A BIT
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT BEHAVIOR OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL, MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH GREATER CONFLUENCE, RESULTING IN
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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