259
FXUS62 KKEY 080225
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS MAINLY MEAN LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE RECORDING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY, THERE
WERE SOME CLOUD STREAMERS ACROSS THE KEYS WITH SOME SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OUTSIDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHICH HAVE SINCE
MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR
10 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
EMERGED OFF THE MAINLAND AND ARE MOVING TO THE WEST JUST OUTSIDE
THE SE GULF WATERS NEAR R TOWER. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS AND SOME LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE PWAT
VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.41 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE INDICATING A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE KEYS. THE CAPE VALUE MEASURED WAS
1453 J/KG INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY, THOUGH, THIS IS LOW
COMPARED TO SOME OF THE VALUES MEASURED LAST WEEK. THE WIND
PROFILE REMAINS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH EASTERLY BREEZES OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 1000 TO 3000 FT. OVERALL, EXPECT MORE OF THE
SAME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE MORE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE, PERHAPS, SOME DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE. SINCE
THIS IS THE ONLY LIFTING MECHANISM IN THE AREA, NO CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD
HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL STRETCH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS WEEK, IT WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY A NEW HIGH MOVING
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, HOLDING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES.
UNCERTAINTY PICKS UP HEADING INTO MID WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO
A ROBUST TROUGH MIGRATING WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SHOULD STAY GENTLE TO MODERATE, BUT COULD VARY QUITE A BIT
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT BEHAVIOR OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL, MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH GREATER CONFLUENCE, RESULTING IN
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS THE RISK FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR
STORM, THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW,
THEREFORE, VCSH WAS NO INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
MARATHON 87 80 87 80 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page