639
FXUS62 KKEY 080817
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
417 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
A MUGGY MORNING IS OPENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE PREVENTING THE AIR FROM FEELING
TOO STAGNANT. CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELD ARE ALSO ABLE TO PROVIDE
A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR NEAR SURFACE SHOWERS. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED ALONG SOME OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LOWER KEYS BEFORE
SUNRISE. THAT BEING SAID, TODAY DOES LOOK ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR
JUNE. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES EAST HIGHLIGHT
SPARSE LOW ALTITUDE CLOUD COVERAGE AMIDST HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS.
CIMSS MIMIC PWAT ESTIMATES INDICATE THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE ON A BIT
OF A MOISTURE GRADIENT. DRIER AIR IS STUCK FURTHER NORTH, OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR STREAMS IN FROM THE
EAST. THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
PERSISTENT BREEZES, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WHAT LED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST? A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THAT RIDGE IS PROMOTING SINKING AIR OVER FLORIDA, YET THE SURFACE
FEATURES ARE MESSY. WEAK WAVES IN THE WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS, PLUS THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, THE
PATTERN IS ON TRACK TO CHANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRIMED TO
MOVE WEST TOWARDS MEXICO AS ANOTHER RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE WOULD BE ABLE TO
SEND A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
THE DELMARVA REGION BY MID- WEEK. THUS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE KEYS WOULD BE BRIEFLY MAINTAINED. LATER IN THE WEEK,
ENSEMBLES SHOW A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS, WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE TO WEATHER OVER THE KEYS? BREEZES ARE ON
TRACK TO GO THROUGH A DIURNAL TREND OF FRESHENING AFTER SUNSET AND
LULLING AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC, LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WOULD VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DIRECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS.
EXPECT A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS FORECAST DOES DEPEND ON THE SURFACE HIGH
DESCENDING OUT OF CANADA, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS MEXICO, AND THE GENERAL COLLAPSE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL ENVIRONMENTS CAN AND DO
CHANGE RAPIDLY, SO CHECK BACK AGAIN BEFORE MAKING ANY PLANS.
TODAY, AT LEAST, ENJOY THE SUNNY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, TROPICAL WAVES IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE HIGH DESCENDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS THROUGH MID- WEEK. LATER IN
THE WEEK, BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO SLACKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. A SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AMIDST CLUSTERS OF
FL020 TO FL030 CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 40
MARATHON 87 80 87 80 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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