724
FXUS62 KKEY 081730
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
130 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- BOUTS OF INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LACK OF COVERAGE WARRANTS LEAVING MENTION OF VCSH OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT LED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST? A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THAT RIDGE IS PROMOTING SINKING AIR OVER FLORIDA, YET THE SURFACE
FEATURES ARE MESSY. WEAK WAVES IN THE WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS, PLUS THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, THE
PATTERN IS ON TRACK TO CHANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRIMED TO
MOVE WEST TOWARDS MEXICO AS ANOTHER RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE WOULD BE ABLE TO
SEND A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO
THE DELMARVA REGION BY MID- WEEK. THUS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE KEYS WOULD BE BRIEFLY MAINTAINED. LATER IN THE WEEK,
ENSEMBLES SHOW A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS, WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE TO WEATHER OVER THE KEYS? BREEZES ARE ON
TRACK TO GO THROUGH A DIURNAL TREND OF FRESHENING AFTER SUNSET AND
LULLING AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC, LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WOULD VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DIRECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS.
EXPECT A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS FORECAST DOES DEPEND ON THE SURFACE HIGH
DESCENDING OUT OF CANADA, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS MEXICO, AND THE GENERAL COLLAPSE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL ENVIRONMENTS CAN AND DO
CHANGE RAPIDLY, SO CHECK BACK AGAIN BEFORE MAKING ANY PLANS.
TODAY, AT LEAST, ENJOY THE SUNNY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID- WEEK. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY MID- WEEK, MAINTAINING LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE AT
NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BEYOND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 80 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 10 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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