009
FXUS62 KKEY 090829
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
429 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- BREEZES ARE PRIMED TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER WAS A BIT MORE ACTIVE EARLY THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO FORM OVER
THE OUTER GULF WATERS WITH SHALLOWER CUMULUS STREAMING OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN MUGGY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE SOLIDLY IN
THE UPPER 70S WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. ZOOMING
OUT A BIT, GOES EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH JUST
MOVED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US TO THE ATLANTIC. THE RESULTING
PATTERN SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
AND NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE YEAR.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS PRIMED TO MOVE FURTHER
WEST WHILE A VERY PRONOUNCED MID LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE FURTHER EAST AND WEAKEN. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MUCH WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND BREEZES, ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES FORECASTING SHOWER COVERAGE. DEEPER LAYERS
OF CARIBBEAN MOISTURE ARE PRIMED TO MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF
INSTEAD OF OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE THAT SUGGESTS SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, THAT DOES NOT MEAN DRY WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
RUNS DO NOT INDICATE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER NEAR THE KEYS OR ANY
SOURCE OF SINKING AIR ALOFT. LARGE SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD
PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS THE KEYS WOULD BE VERY BROAD,
MEANING MESOSCALE FEATURES WOULD DOMINATE WEATHER. IN THAT LIGHT,
EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. JUST REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, MIND THE HEAT, AND STAY
SAFE!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO DIRECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LATER IN THE WEEK, A SURFACE HIGH
IS PRIMED TO MOVE FROM THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE INTO THE ATLANTIC,
WHICH WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO SLACKEN. THE OVERALL FLOW OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH WOULD LET
SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHORT LIVED SHOWERS. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 80 90 81 / 20 30 40 30
MARATHON 87 80 87 81 / 20 30 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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