168
FXUS62 KKEY 091356
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
956 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZES ARE WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
COMPOSITE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A RATHER COMPLICATED
PATTERN EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, THE SOUTHEAST, AND INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE FLORIDA KEYS
REMAIN UNDER THE GRIP OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE AZORES, INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. IN THE LOW- LEVELS, BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) BASED
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICITY BEING
SUPPLIED BY A PROPAGATING EASTERLY WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA.
FURTHER ALOFT, THE GULF REMAINS BRIDGED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
SUPPORTED BY PRETTY WIDESPREAD CIRRUS ADVECTING IN AN ANTICYLONIC
FASHION TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY
SAMPLED A MOIST AND UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER, CAPPED BY A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BASED AT AROUND 900 MB. KBYX RADAR IS ONLY
DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OUR MARINE ZONES, MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PROPAGATING EASTERLY
WAVE INTERACTING WITH THE CAG. IN THE MEANTIME, GENERAL
METEOROLOGICAL REASONING SUGGESTS THE CAP AT AROUND 900 MB WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MAJOR CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS. ANOTHER
WARM AND HUMID DAY, WITH SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR THESE PERIODS. THEREAFTER, THE INTERACTION OF THE EASTERLY
WAVE AND CAG WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
BY LATE TONIGHT, CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK, A
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, ALLOWING BREEZES TO SLACKEN. THE OVERALL
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE KEYS MARINE ZONES BY THEN,
REDUCING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
VCSH FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF WHEN
STORMS INITIATE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 18Z STANDARD TAF
ISSUANCE AT BOTH EYW AND MTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 80 90 81 / 20 30 40 30
MARATHON 87 80 87 81 / 20 30 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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