464
FXUS62 KKEY 091758
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
158 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZES WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. WHILE A PASSING SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE, COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY MINIMAL. COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONTINUING THROUGH 10/18Z.
HAVE INCLUDED A GENERAL MENTION OF VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR STORM INITIATION. LATE EVENING TAF
ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS MORE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE TEMPOS OR SHORT PREVAILING SUB- VFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LOOKING AHEAD, THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS PRIMED TO MOVE FURTHER
WEST WHILE A VERY PRONOUNCED MID LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE FURTHER EAST AND WEAKEN. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MUCH WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND BREEZES, ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES FORECASTING SHOWER COVERAGE. DEEPER LAYERS
OF CARIBBEAN MOISTURE ARE PRIMED TO MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF
INSTEAD OF OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE THAT SUGGESTS SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, THAT DOES NOT MEAN DRY WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
RUNS DO NOT INDICATE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER NEAR THE KEYS OR ANY
SOURCE OF SINKING AIR ALOFT. LARGE SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD
PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS THE KEYS WOULD BE VERY BROAD,
MEANING MESOSCALE FEATURES WOULD DOMINATE WEATHER. IN THAT LIGHT,
EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. JUST REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, MIND THE HEAT, AND STAY
SAFE!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK, A
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, ALLOWING BREEZES TO SLACKEN. THE OVERALL
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE KEYS MARINE ZONES BY THEN,
REDUCING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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