904
FXUS62 KKEY 100843
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
443 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES PEAK TODAY AND ARE PRIMED TO DECREASE
TO BELOW AVERAGE CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING IS PECULIAR. THE KBYX
RADAR DISPLAY IS SURPRISINGLY EMPTY BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE PERCOLATING
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AMIDST THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS OBSERVATIONS FROM
GOES EAST INDICATE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS,
EXCEPT THOSE WOULD BE HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CLOUDS. ZOOMING OUT FROM
THE KEYS INDICATES WHY THE WEATHER APPEARS SO UNEVENTFUL. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR WESTERN CUBA, HOWEVER, A MONSOONAL PATTERN
CALLED THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS OF MORE INTEREST. THE CAG SHIFTED
THE OVERALL FLOW OF MOISTURE FURTHER WEST WHILE THE ATLANTIC HIGH
HAS MAINTAINED GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN FOR TODAY'S WEATHER? WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVER THE KEYS. SHOWERS CAN
STILL FORM ALONG WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE WIND FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LITTLE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION, SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR AND
WATCH FOR ANY NEARBY SHOWERS!
LOOKING AHEAD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE CAG INDICATES THE KEYS WILL BE IN THE DOLDRUMS
BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE CENTERS. THE CAG ALSO IS PRIMED TO DIVERT
ADDITIONAL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER
THIS WEEK. THE RESULT WOULD BE A COLLAPSE IN WIND SPEEDS, TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES, AND LOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WOULD BE LOCAL EFFECTS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES MEAN CLOUD LINE PATTERNS MAY DEVELOP, SEA AND LAND BREEZES
BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR, AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE WATER
CAN SET OFF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER END. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A BELOW AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL, ENJOY THE DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THEY LAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PERSISTENT GENTLE TO EASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SHOWER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRIMED TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL ALLOW BREEZES TO
SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE EASTERLY WAVE
WILL PULL THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WEST AND ALLOW A DRIER PATTERN TO
SET UP ACROSS THE KEYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. PASSING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANIED MVFR CIGS AND VIS. COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SUNRISE AND PEAK BEFORE SUNSET. VCSH IS
INCLUDED INSTEAD OF SHRA DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ONSET OF SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2019, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THAT OBSERVATION ALSO TIES FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN JUNE AND THE ALL TIME WARMEST LOW FOR THE MARATHON
AREA. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
OF NOTE
IN 2005, TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PASSED WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT PRODUCED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE DRY TORTUGAS. IN
KEY WEST, WIND GUSTS WERE 47 MPH. STORM SURGE 1.35 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
AT KEY WEST HARBOR, CAUSING MINOR FLOODING. WIND DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES
OCCURRED ON LOWER MATECUMBE KEY. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
WERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 81 / 40 20 30 10
MARATHON 88 81 89 81 / 30 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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