604
FXUS62 KKEY 101417
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1017 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING NEAR 100F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDOW FOR
THEIR GREATEST RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING A CLEAR CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE (CAG) IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS LATE
MORNING HOUR. CIMSS SATELLITE- DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NORTHWESTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MUCH DRIER
AIR IS PENETRATING FROM THE EAST, AS A CONTINENTAL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. OFTEN TIMES, THE DRY
AIR IMPINGING ON A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE A SOURCE OF
LARGE- SCALE ASCENT, AND THAT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE TODAY. KBYX
RADAR IS HIGHLIGHTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS, WITH STRONGER CONVECTION
PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOIST-DRY AIR MASS INTERACTION. PERHAPS WHAT
IS MOST INTERESTING IS THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING, WHICH WE
HYPOTHESIZE IS ATTRIBUTED TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE 700-600
MB ISOBARIC LAYER.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE CONVECTIVE PLUME IN THE EASTERN WATERS
SHOULD SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD, FIRST TO THE MIDDLE KEYS, THEN
EVENTUALLY TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS. IT IS TEMPTING TO RAISE
POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS, BUT AMPLE CIRRUS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
MAY LIMITED INSTABILITY. DID NUDGE TO HIGH-END CHANCE LEVELS
(AROUND 50%). THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT TODAY, LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 80S AT MOST COMMUNITIES. NO
OTHER CHANGES PROPOSED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HIGHER AND CONFUSED SEAS, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS WELL OVER
THE MEAN FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WOULD SUGGEST.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON, OWED TO THE PERIPHERAL MOISTURE
SURGE FROM A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING BREEZES TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE. AS THE GYRE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL ALSO SHIFT WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES, SUPPORTING
A DRIER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING, FIRST NEAR
MTH, THEN LATER NEAR EYW. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A WINDOW FOR VCSH
FOR NOW THROUGH 00Z DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. AFTER 00Z, MUCH
DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 81 / 50 20 30 10
MARATHON 88 81 89 81 / 50 20 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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